Stagflation buying patterns?

[JamieAdelaide]

Yes like most folks I can’t believe the mess we are heading. Internal and external stupidity abound. But I guess better discussion if no politics.

I read on winefront a $450 Barossa Shiraz being offered for $50 elsewhere. Although an extreme example, you would think that the wine buying public will be forced to tighten their purses with no end in sight of cost of living pressures ( cough cough no politics ).

Just wondering will anyone adjust their buying? Not necessarily because of mortgage repayments overshooting but because of a market that’s going to have to change?

I’ve been pondering and I think I’ll have a buying hiatus for the year ( except when abroad or perhaps a few boomer bargains at auction ). I’ll drink down the cellar for a period.

[Chuck]

There is a huge world wide wine glut. Supply has been increasing for years while demand has fallen. I've heard as much as 10% decline in world demand as drinkers drink less but better quality and people moving to other forms of alcohol. I've heard there is a vine pull program in Bordeaux and suspect this is happening elsewhere including OZ. Riverland growers have been decimated with below cost of production prices. I believe this glut will last a few years as the stockpiles are huge and building. A bit like turning the Queen Mary around. I've been buying up big at silly prices for good wines. Buy in gloom; sell in boom

[GraemeG]

Several wineries have latched on this as a marketing gimmick, I think. Make a wine, stick it on the website for $400 or something silly, then sell it off through various retailers for punters to buy at around $50. Bit of a risky approach if you're managing the business for the long-term I reckon, but then I'm just an unemployed accountant, not a marketing guru, so what would I know?

[JamieAdelaide]

The poor bugger who pays $450!

[phillisc]

Agree 100% with the sentiments here.
I was thinking of putting the cue in the rack at 2010/12 vintages, then 2021/22, but will give 2023a miss and wander off in 2024/25...can hear the canned music now
The compounding "problem" is the current state of the Australian wine industry...a carcass that is being picked over by retailers, etailers and many other third parties, auction houses and of course the public.
It's not hard to join in and so many wines, plus a few I buy are now 50-80% off and with the big players it's simply a case of being patient. Eventually the accountants get their way and here endeth the lesson and or business.
I am bemused that current release marques, e.g. totem wines from Yarra Valley can be sourced cheaper on the second hand market, than on mail order, and without the pressure of a six bottle $1000 minimum spend.
I'll play for another year or two, and will continue when I can to deal directly with a small operation, so they can stay afloat.
For the reminder, it's a race to the bottom.
Apologies, but at the moment have a little extra time on my hands.
Cheers Craig

[Waiters Friend]

G'day Craig.

I'm in a quandary here. Technically, I have enough wine to see me out for the rest of my natural, but I have gone long on W.A. 2023s. Having said that, I am finally attempting to adopt the 'buy less, buy better' mantra (like a smoker trying to give up, I've attempted this before) and it's worked for most of 2026 so far. It means the average price per bottle has escalated, however.

None of these habits seem to align with the 'discounting' opportunities that are the topic of this thread - to the detriment of my wallet. Maybe this is just a 'phase of life' thing. It will change when I retire

Cheers
Allan

[phillisc]

Thanks Allan.
Think 2023 in your neck of the woods was a very sound vintage. WA may well as be in another country as it seems you have vintage after vintage that is near perfect.
Yes I agree, this aggressive cost cutting will end at some point, either though a vine pull scheme, attrition of many more wineries and vineyards,That said, I reckon it will be at least 5 years before it does...wine Australia purports 2 billion litres of wine sloshing around in tanks or on pallets sitting in warehouses.
I'm like you, I have enough wine for another 20 years so will taper off. When I retire it's likely there will be things other than wine that will capture my interest.
Cheers Craig

[VinoEd]

Great discussion.

I’ve been contemplating my go-forward position a lot in recent weeks, as reflecting on the cellar I’ve built over the last ~7 or so years with intent has probably been lacking a proper intent!

There are lots of good to great Australian wines, however there are also a lot of wines that are just below that tier that are occupying space in a cellar that costs me about $3 per bottle per year.

My intent is to buy circa 60-70 bottles this year, and likely try to sell a few of my mid tier wines to create some capacity. I’m building a good idea of what my annual purchase looks like for that 60-70 bottle cohort that gives me good windows or drinking across the future, is balanced and aimed at a higher quality with no filler.

That means that I’m likely to avoid a lot of the heavily discounted wines as they usually won’t be on my list. We’ll see how good my discipline is, but I’ll be making an effort.

The secondary market or buy at release is a great question. There is always a risk with how wines have been stored, so from release to the climate controlled cellar gives comfort, but equally having randomly purchased wine at auction via someone from here who was selling, at times you get the high quality cellaring at a favourable price to the RRP.

Cheers Ed

[phillisc]

True Ed,
Provenance can be an issue but that said if you're purchasing current release from auction, where the time frame is less than 12 months, unless the wine has been stored on top of a fridge, then I think it's a pretty safe bet.
The other thing that surprises me is the culling of lines from the big chains, often resulting in savage discounting.
I don't know what the price of Moss Wood is...$140-150 but with cash back in a six...$74!!!
Similarly many vintages of Yalumba Menzies and Signature sub $40…
In reference to the "$450" wine selling for $50, it's a winery on Seppeltsfield Rd. I know the wine maker well and asked them why...cash in the till, cashflow is king and there's the odd tourist or imbecile who pays full tote odds. There's a position with many wineries, particularly in BV where an outrageously priced wine is "required" and a few get sold.
Bit like catering to the black Porsche brigade on Penfolds Rd.
The reality with these fake RRPs most are flicked at 50-90% off to a myriad of etailers.
Again interesting times
Cheers Craig